Months ago I setup a tranche system to swap out pre-determined portions of silver for gold, starting at a GSR of 75. Basically, I set aside a fixed amount of silver that, when the GSR hit a specific band, to sell without emotion.
The portion was predefined to buy a certain amount of gold at that level, fully knowing the dealer spread when the market compressed (so a purchase at 75, for example required about 80, etc.).
Rather than a large scale liquidation all at once, I divided each tranche such that I would make one liquidation at a level per month, and if the GSR dropped to a lower tranche, only then to liquidate the full portion of the higher tranche for gold. So for example, if you allocated 195oz of silver to swap for at 65, 1 Oz per month's over 3 months, and in the first month the GSR dropped to 55, you would swap the full 195 Oz for about 3.5oz of gold instead.
This is how you ride out the volatility to not liquidate your full position too soon, holding portions to from, say 75 down to 1.
This time staggered strategy is to account for the whipsaw effect which is brutal for silver (GSR going from 75 to 100 in a few weeks). To counter this, each unit of gold I swap for, I physically write a note to swap back for silver at my swap price + 15. So for a piece of gold I swapped from 80 Oz of silver, I hold until there's a whipsaw correction to 95 to swap back for silver, and do that for each piece of gold, swapped at each tranche.
I think the odds of silver going 1 to 1 with gold are not zero. If there is a short squeeze in the futures market, companies like Tesla, OpenAI, and anyone who deals with any greentech or microchips will have to buy silver at any price to avoid manufacturing shocks that will cripple their businesses, so personally, I think it's a good idea to hold some silver for the potential eventuality that silver overshoot the historic GSR and corrects to a level unseen in history.
The inverse happened during the COVID years, when the GSR hit 120.
That made absolutely no sense mathematically, and I bought a sizeable portion of my position at that level.
For that reason, I'm holding out a large tranche for the possibility of the GSR at 15, 5, and 1, but have been locking in some profit by swapping smaller amounts at current levels.
A 1:1 ratio makes about as much sense as a 125:1 ratio, but it happened, very briefly, right at the start of the COVID lockdowns in 2020. That was a once in a lifetime event. A 1:1 GSR is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
That's never happened before, but that doesn't mean it won't.
The American dollar was redeemable for silver coins up until 1964 (Canada until 1967), around the time the GSR was stably around 15:1.
Back then, there was almost zero industrial demand for silver.
Today, it is impossible to have mass electrification, semi-conductors, green tech, or AI without silver and there are very few primary silver mines (most silver is recycled or mined as a by-product of other industrial metals).
It seems silly not to have even a small amount of silver as a personally held asset for when reality sinks in that our entire civilization is dependent on a scarce commodity that has had it's market price disconnected from reality for an entire generation.
One other thing to consider, from a metaphysical pattern perspective is that the GSR is a barometer for truth and human psychological tolerance for deception.
It's an objective fact that the physical world supply of gold and silver exist in a ratio between 10 and 16, so any market pricing that distorts that ratio is an objective distortion of reality.
The movements in the GSR are then snapshots of humanity's collective willingness to tolerate being lied to.
If you overlay the GSR over historic geopolitical events you can see this.
The 120 spike during the COVID years is the best recent example of this.
Humanity was absolutely obsessed with believing lies about everything, to the point of brutally punishing anyone who called out the truth and the GSR is a clear marker in time that makes that very evident.
A reversion and overshoot, say to 15 and to 1 in the GSR would then be a perfectly rational counter move to balance the systemic deception and lies that everyone believes in.
That is the "Emperor has no clothes" moment for humanity, when everyone sees a truth they can't unsee, and the same emotional contagion that had people fist fight over rolls of toilet paper will see them panicking to buy silver for the same price as gold.
Especially with the distortions in reality AI and crypto cause, holding a physical object of immutable, verifiable quality will be the only way to prevent total psychosis.
Boomers especially who spent their whole lives believing and propagating lies like debt is wealth, and provision equals presence, are going to be hit the absolute hardest by this.
Months ago I setup a tranche system to swap out pre-determined portions of silver for gold, starting at a GSR of 75. Basically, I set aside a fixed amount of silver that, when the GSR hit a specific band, to sell without emotion.
The portion was predefined to buy a certain amount of gold at that level, fully knowing the dealer spread when the market compressed (so a purchase at 75, for example required about 80, etc.).
Rather than a large scale liquidation all at once, I divided each tranche such that I would make one liquidation at a level per month, and if the GSR dropped to a lower tranche, only then to liquidate the full portion of the higher tranche for gold. So for example, if you allocated 195oz of silver to swap for at 65, 1 Oz per month's over 3 months, and in the first month the GSR dropped to 55, you would swap the full 195 Oz for about 3.5oz of gold instead.
This is how you ride out the volatility to not liquidate your full position too soon, holding portions to from, say 75 down to 1.
This time staggered strategy is to account for the whipsaw effect which is brutal for silver (GSR going from 75 to 100 in a few weeks). To counter this, each unit of gold I swap for, I physically write a note to swap back for silver at my swap price + 15. So for a piece of gold I swapped from 80 Oz of silver, I hold until there's a whipsaw correction to 95 to swap back for silver, and do that for each piece of gold, swapped at each tranche.
I think the odds of silver going 1 to 1 with gold are not zero. If there is a short squeeze in the futures market, companies like Tesla, OpenAI, and anyone who deals with any greentech or microchips will have to buy silver at any price to avoid manufacturing shocks that will cripple their businesses, so personally, I think it's a good idea to hold some silver for the potential eventuality that silver overshoot the historic GSR and corrects to a level unseen in history.
The inverse happened during the COVID years, when the GSR hit 120.
That made absolutely no sense mathematically, and I bought a sizeable portion of my position at that level.
For that reason, I'm holding out a large tranche for the possibility of the GSR at 15, 5, and 1, but have been locking in some profit by swapping smaller amounts at current levels.
1:1 would be insane lol. Even 15:1 would be killer!
A 1:1 ratio makes about as much sense as a 125:1 ratio, but it happened, very briefly, right at the start of the COVID lockdowns in 2020. That was a once in a lifetime event. A 1:1 GSR is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Look at the 50 year GSR chart back to 1975: https://goldprice.org/gold-price-charts/all-data-gold-silver-ratio-history
That's never happened before, but that doesn't mean it won't.
The American dollar was redeemable for silver coins up until 1964 (Canada until 1967), around the time the GSR was stably around 15:1.
Back then, there was almost zero industrial demand for silver.
Today, it is impossible to have mass electrification, semi-conductors, green tech, or AI without silver and there are very few primary silver mines (most silver is recycled or mined as a by-product of other industrial metals).
It seems silly not to have even a small amount of silver as a personally held asset for when reality sinks in that our entire civilization is dependent on a scarce commodity that has had it's market price disconnected from reality for an entire generation.
One other thing to consider, from a metaphysical pattern perspective is that the GSR is a barometer for truth and human psychological tolerance for deception.
It's an objective fact that the physical world supply of gold and silver exist in a ratio between 10 and 16, so any market pricing that distorts that ratio is an objective distortion of reality.
The movements in the GSR are then snapshots of humanity's collective willingness to tolerate being lied to.
If you overlay the GSR over historic geopolitical events you can see this.
The 120 spike during the COVID years is the best recent example of this.
Humanity was absolutely obsessed with believing lies about everything, to the point of brutally punishing anyone who called out the truth and the GSR is a clear marker in time that makes that very evident.
A reversion and overshoot, say to 15 and to 1 in the GSR would then be a perfectly rational counter move to balance the systemic deception and lies that everyone believes in.
That is the "Emperor has no clothes" moment for humanity, when everyone sees a truth they can't unsee, and the same emotional contagion that had people fist fight over rolls of toilet paper will see them panicking to buy silver for the same price as gold.
Especially with the distortions in reality AI and crypto cause, holding a physical object of immutable, verifiable quality will be the only way to prevent total psychosis.
Boomers especially who spent their whole lives believing and propagating lies like debt is wealth, and provision equals presence, are going to be hit the absolute hardest by this.
Oh this is really cool and it totally makes intuitive sense.
I’ve never seen this but 100% can imagine it overlays quite well!
Thanks for the knowledge! I’ll investigate further