💰26.5% Return @ 7.5 Year CAGR
📈Doubling < 3 Years
Late start, but I’ve just started SubStack. I’ll be running a quarterly report of returns of assets I’m managing and give the direction of where I’m heading.
Future
🟢Argentina - I am VERY keen on Argentina. The new President Milei is smashing shit up. Firing swaths of the Government, reigning in spending and trying to “drain the swamp”. I’m bullish on South and Central America as well as Emerging markets as a whole. Real estate looks to be $30k USD for a house in Buenos Aires. From poking around sources in that area - people are saying that they are starting to see changes for the better. I would very much like to take a Real Estate position down there.
🔴Real Estate in 🍁Canada - I believe we are roughly at the top of prices, so I don’t want to put more money into this cycle.
🟢Gold - I feel we are in early days of a repricing of gold. Maybe in the next 10 years, we’ll see more of a global focus on Gold as being an important thing. I think this because:
The paper market far exceeds the amount of real gold
Foreign governments are bulk buying the stuff and dumping US Treasuries
We are closing in on the end of US long term debt cycle
Retail buyers in emerging markets are starting to buy with increased wealth and economic uncertainty
🟢Silver - I feel Silver will do the same as Gold. Maybe more of an % upside as a short term trade, but I prefer Gold as a long term play.
🟢Energy - With increasing Geopolitical risk, more and more military being at a “ready state” the demand for energy will go up. Dumb, readily available energy is preferable over complex, green energy in a wartime state. I believe Oil and Coal would be preferential in these situations.
🔴 Proof of Stake - My opinion on Proof of Stake has shifted to the downside as I’ve matured my understanding. I feel that comparing Proof of Stake to the OG Bitcoin’s proof of work shows that Proof of Stake is far more susceptible to banking and whale manipulation. Additionality governments can tax staking rewards unfavorably - i.e. when you receive the stake reward rather than at sale of the reward.
🔴Tesla - Elon has been self sabotaging himself by pissing everyone in deep state off. This coupled with dwindling EV sales growth leaves any future multiple returns sat on the shoulders of Autonomous Taxis, Robotic AI. Taxis I think they have the upper hand, Robotic AI I don’t think they have the upper hand.
✨Wealth Dashboard
I’ll be providing my Google Docs/Excel Wealth Dashboard to subscribers. I’ve been working on it for 15 years and it is one of my main tools for investment decisions. It includes:
Dashboard page
Holdings
Returns
Future Projections
Subscribe to receive this for free. Details coming soon.
In 1980, when the Hunt Brothers cornered the Silver market, there was a very brief period of time in Canada when you could purchase a single family house for about 1000 oz of silver.
The average single family house in Canada in 2024 is around $700,000.
If another event like the Hunt Brother's cornering the market happens, silver would have to rise to about CAD$700 / oz from it's current CAD$40 / oz.
That happened 44 years ago.
If it happened again, the Gold to Silver Ratio can be anywhere between 20 to 120, meaning the price for gold would be somewhere between CAD$14,000 to $84,000 from the current CAD$3200.
The Joseph Effect is a really interesting cycle to read into, especially the 7th Joseph Effect Cycle (which happens every 49 years).
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/josepheffect.asp#:~:text=years%20would%20follow.-,Seven%20good%20years%20are%20known%20as%20the%20Joseph%20Effect%2C%20while,a%20predictor%20of%20recession%20timing.