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AutismDad's avatar

I only invest in precious metals because I've follow global affairs so closely for the past 25 years.

We are still at the closest point to World War 3 at least since 1982 and any investment other than precious metals - be it oil, crypto, stocks, or real estate - will be worthless if a World War breaks out.

Specifically to oil, the price for oil could go to the moon, and if it does, governments will simply nationalize all the oil companies by classifying them as vital to national security, and if all private investors take a haircut in the process, that's not the government's problem.

We currently are in the 4th generational cycle that brought us to the brink of World War 3. The first was the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), Able Archer (1983), 9/11 (2001), and the Ukraine War (2023).

Every 20 or so years since the end of WW2, humanity seems to push itself right to the absolute brink of global annihilation.

No one is seriously thinking about the implications of what WW3 will look like.

If it's a global nuclear war, only 1 in every 100 people will survive globally. Meaning, if you don't have the means to outlast your family size multiplied by 100 in a disaster scenario, you will die, hard stop.

In that scenario the best investment is tangible goods and specialized skills that will allow you to provide a valuable good or service such as water, food, hygiene, medical care, defense, or non-digital knowledge preservation.

If it's a limited nuclear war, probably 1 in ever 10 people will survive, and the same logic as a global nuclear war applies.

If, more likely, WW3 becomes an asymmetric hybrid war, things will get a lot more weird in that new forms of warfare will be employed that no one has ever considered. On North America, I fully expect forces hostile to the US (including Western European nations) will resort to narco-terrorism, flooding the United States with drugs and weapons from South America through Canada, forcing the US to play their hand to deploy troops to invade Canada and secure it's ports.

In any of those scenarios, I'd expect an inversion in priorities that would see the valuation of all investments essentially being completely flipped where the most undervalued investments (such as precious metals) become extremely valuable while the investments everyone thinks are valuable now will become worthless.

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